2024 shocked even old China Watchers, Plus Brazil investigates BYD for human trafficking -- China Boss News 1.10.25
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What happened in 2024
Large-scale natural disasters, industrial accidents, mass killings, and government actions in China all had an outsized impact on individuals, businesses, and international relations last year.
In Q1 2024, there were two coal mine explosions, fires with large numbers of casualties, including one at a boarding school that killed 13 third graders, a landslide, a 7.1 earthquake, and a mass murder in Shandong that left 21 people dead.
Turbulent weather caused widespread flooding, affecting cities and villages and resulting in the evacuation of hundreds of thousands. The devastation would be repeated throughout the year, destroying lives and crop yields.
In May, China launched its famous Chang'e 6 mission to the Moon to gather lunar samples, and Putin visited Xi Jinping in Beijing ostensibly to talk about energy and trade.
In June, China classified Taiwanese separatism as a criminal act punishable by death, and Taiwanese authorities warned citizens about visiting the mainland.
A clash occurred near the Second Thomas Shoal between Philippine military personnel carrying out a resupply mission and aggressive Chinese Coast Guard officers. The Philippine military released footage showing Chinese officers who had illegally boarded their vessels - under international law, that's an act of war - using axes and what looked like machetes to damage their rubber boats. The incident left one Filipino guardsman without his thumb.
July was a pivotal month in geopolitics, as NATO, for the first time, labeled China a “decisive enabler” of Russia's war in Ukraine.
More floods displaced more people, and in August, China and the Philippine Coast Guard were involved in another collision in the Spratly Islands.
In September, China's crackdown on corruption resulted in lifetime bans issued to 43 players from the Chinese Football Association for match-fixing.
A ten-year-old student attending a Japanese school was killed in a stabbing incident in Shenzhen on the anniversary of the Mukden Incident in 1931, which China points to as the beginning of the Japanese invasion of Manchuria. The perpetrator was caught, and although no motive has been published, the attack is seen in Japan and elsewhere as a horrific episode in China's long-standing anti-Japanese sentiment, which Beijing deliberately stirs to the boiling point.
In October, China and India agreed on military patrol measures along the border to de-escalate tensions.
November brought another wake-up call to the international business community when it was announced that UK BigPharma firm AstraZeneca China chief Leon Wang had been suddenly arrested for fraud, illegal drug importation, and data collection. The latest reports indicate that Wang is still in detention.
A mass stabbing at a vocational school in Wuxi killed eight and injured 17 in December.
That same month, China responded to US curbs on the exports of advanced technology with a ban on critical minerals, and the ex-chairman of the bankrupt developer Evergrande was sentenced to 12 years for embezzlement.
These events, although dramatic, barely scratch the surface of China's rocky year. But before I get into the top business, law, and geopolitical stories that emerged over the past couple of weeks, let's take a last look at three 2024 developments that shocked even those of us who thought we’d seen it all.
Why it matters
Overcapacity
In 2024, China's industrial overcapacity became a major challenge for global trade.
Recent tariffs from various countries and China's responses indicate ongoing tensions highly likely to affect diplomacy, business, and geopolitics in 2025.
It's a marked turnaround from not too long ago when Chinese products seemed to flow unobstructed across borders.
China's increasing manufacturing overseas highlights its awareness of weak domestic demand.
Yet, the Chinese government is reluctant to address the issues causing overcapacity and trade tensions, mainly because of its investment-driven growth model that favors specific sectors, usually for strategic reasons.
In September, the Biden Administration proposed banning Chinese software in Level 3 automated vehicles due to national security concerns.
Washington also wants to end using vehicles with advanced wireless communication modules developed by China in the US.
The administration had already raised tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles by 100 percent to support American automakers while limiting tax credits for Chinese firms in the US EV market.
During a briefing with reporters, Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, referenced US intelligence concerns about a Chinese operation called Volt Typhoon.
The operation aims to infiltrate US power systems and critical infrastructure, potentially posing a significant threat during a crisis.
While officials are examining other industries for similar software and hardware rules, they indicated none would have the same impact as the proposed auto industry ban.
The proposed rule would also apply to Russian software, despite Russia having minimal products that could be banned.
Experts see this as part of a growing security competition between the US and China, increasing the likelihood of future expansions of such bans.
There is bipartisan support for addressing Chinese threats, though some experts argue the fear of China is exaggerated and harms American consumers.
The ban would apply to all wheeled vehicles on US roads, including cars, trucks, and buses, but would exclude vehicles not used on public roads. Regarding software, it is set to take effect for the model year 2027, with hardware bans starting in the model year 2030.
If the rules are implemented, Elon Musk, who is critical of the proposed regulations, may influence executive actions. Musk, who, together with Vivek Ramaswamy, has been slated to head the proposed Department of Government Efficiency under Trump 2.0, could use his new sway in the White House to curtail enforcement efforts.
Why? Tesla, having a significant presence in China, might be vulnerable if China retaliates. The company is also investing in self-driving software with Chinese firms.
Meanwhile, following in US footsteps, the European Commission also imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. China's top trade official visited the EU to oppose these tariffs but faced resistance.
Emerging economies are also increasingly affected by China's industrial policies. Frustration over limited market access while benefiting from affordable imported goods is exacerbating trade deficits with China and causing developing countries to respond with tariffs and other protective measures.
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Another Chinese ship destroys undersea pipelines.
On November 17, 2024, a cable connecting Sweden and Lithuania was cut, followed by another cable connecting Finland and Germany the next day.
During both incidents, a Chinese-flagged ship, the Yi Peng 3, was nearby.
While no official blame has been assigned to the ship, the severing of critical infrastructure, of course, drew the attention of various national authorities.
Germany's defense minister described the incidents as "sabotage" and "hybrid aggression," suggesting they were intentional.
Authorities in Sweden and Finland said they met resistance when they requested cooperation from China, raising suspicions even more.
The ship was stationary nearby for a month while discussions continued between diplomats from Stockholm and Beijing.
In December, Swedish police announced they boarded the Yi Peng 3 vessel at China's request.
The incident follows an October 2023 case involving a Chinese container ship, the NewNew Polar Bear, which was found to have damaged undersea cables. China eventually admitted the boat caused the damage but claimed it was accidental and caused by a storm. However, Estonian and Finnish officials remained skeptical, noting the ship had dragged its anchor, damaging infrastructure.
According to the Wall Street Journal, some European nations believe Russia is ultimately responsible for the attacks and have begun to openly accuse Moscow of hybrid warfare despite the lack of solid proof.
There has been a spate of attacks on European soil that security experts say have been committed by Russia-linked saboteurs.
In February, Polish officials detained a man linked to Russian intelligence accused of planning sabotage in Wroclaw.
Germany has speculated that Russia could be tied to a 2022 train sabotage. In another incident, as Russia gathered forces for its attack on Ukraine, a fishing trawler was spotted near a cable that subsequently broke, raising more questions about its involvement.
The Yi Peng 3 and NewNew Polar Bear had ports of call and management ties to Russia, which could be linked to Russia's shadow fleet, described by the European Parliament as "a growing number of aging and poorly maintained vessels that operate with minimal regard to the regulations [and] poses significant environmental, maritime safety, and security risks." Moscow primarily uses the fleet to evade sanctions.
These vessels face bans on port access and service provisions and have been involved in risky shipping activities related to Russian oil, arms deliveries, grain theft, or supporting Russia's energy sector.
In December, The European Union announced a 15th package of sanctions against Russia and its shadow fleet for the invasion of Ukraine.
The package also included the first full sanctions with travel bans and asset freezes imposed against Chinese entities.
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Americans stabbed in China
The day US-China relations went further south should have been perfect for exploring Beishan Park, a lovely setting with a famous temple and scenic urban gardens in China's northeastern Jilin province.
That's where American David Zabner and three of his faculty colleagues from Cornell College in Iowa were leaving on June 10, 2024, when someone let out a blood-curdling scream.
"I turned around to find a man brandishing a knife at me. I didn't immediately realize what was happening. I thought my coworker had been pushed, and he was trying to push me for some reason. And then I looked down at my shoulder and realized I was bleeding. I've been stabbed," Zabner recounted to Iowa Public Radio.
Video taken from Chinese social media showed several people, obviously foreign, speaking North American-accented English, as they lay covered in blood on the ground.
Emergency services arrived within 20 minutes; fortunately, the injuries were not life-threatening.
However, the lack of an immediate official response from Beijing raised concerns amid rising tensions in US-China relations. After over 24 hours, a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry called the stabbings "an isolated incident. "
He claimed that China was one of the safest countries in the world and that the incident would not disrupt exchanges between China and the US.
The attack coincided with China's efforts to enhance educational exchanges with the US. Earlier in the year, Chinese leader Xi Jinping announced plans to invite 50,000 young Americans to study programs in the next five years.
But the stabbings will, no doubt, impede that vision.
For this China Watcher, it also illustrates the growing difficulties of maintaining regular exchanges between the two nations under Xi's government.
In November, the US State Department updated its China travel advisories to "Level 2: Exercise increased caution," warning about the arbitrary enforcement of local laws and wrongful detentions, making it increasingly risky for Americans.
Although it is becoming more challenging for any foreigner to comply with China's new national security laws, where standards of conduct are deliberately left vague, there is also growing unease over the xenophobia and anti-American sentiment that Xi Jinping has increasingly promoted since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged.
In a speech in 2023, China's leader made direct remarks aimed at the United States as he urged the nation's private enterprises to "battle" alongside the Communist Party during a time of increasing difficulties domestically and internationally.
"[In the past five years,] Western countries led by the United States have contained and suppressed us in an all-round way, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to our development," Xi told a group of government advisers during China's Two Sessions, the annual legislative meetings held in Beijing.
After the pandemic, state media narratives also began framing foreigners as threats to public health, while the US has been used as a scapegoat for various national problems.
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BRAZIL INVESTIGATES BYD FOR POOR WORKING CONDITIONS, HUMAN TRAFFICKING: Local investigators met with BYD to discuss inhumane working conditions discovered last month on the construction site of its new Brazilian factory.
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