Beijing stokes tensions in Middle East to gain in Indo-Pacific, New arrests, Foxconn probe 'rattle' foreign firms and Li Keqiang dies -- China Boss News 10.27.23
Newsletter
What happened.
Beijing stepped up its game of chicken in the South China Sea over the weekend after deploying 6 warships to the Middle East.
A naval escort "task force," from the People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater, as well as a "new convoy ... from the PLA's Northern Theater command, were said to be “operating” in the region as the Israel-Hamas war escalated, South China Morning Post reported.
Some of the vessels were sent within days of the October 7th deployment of the US' "most advanced carrier the USS Gerald R Ford and its battle group to the eastern Mediterranean," news staff said.
China's official response has been to downplay "social media rumors of power escalation in response to the US naval deployment" as "not accurate."
“The Chinese embassy in Amman clarified that the presence of Chinese warships in the Middle East is unrelated to the Gaza escalation, according to reports. The embassy stated the ships are in the region for peaceful visits and regular training, emphasizing their objective is friendly engagement and cooperation,” a local Jordanian media outlet said.
Meanwhile, the Philippines accused a Chinese coast guard vessel of "intentionally" ramming its ship during a resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands, according to Reuters.
The incident on Sunday is "the most serious yet," news staff said, and pushes on U.S. obligations under its mutual defense treaty with Manila at a time when Washington is embroiled in a new Middle East conflict.
On Wednesday, US President Joe Biden "warned China not to engage in dangerous and unlawful activity towards the Philippines and warned that any attack on the US ally would trigger Washington's mutual defense treaty with Manila," Financial Times reported.
“The United States defense commitment to the Philippines is ironclad. Any attack on Filipino aircraft, vessels or armed forces will invoke our mutual defence treaty with the Philippines,” he said.
Why it matters
South China Sea
But Beijing is very aware of the US’ obligation to defend the Philippines, it just hasn’t had to bother with the actual risk of conflict until more recently.
In 2018, Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi, wrote that “[t]wo successive U.S. administrations — Barack Obama's and [then’s] Donald Trump's — [had] failed to push back credibly against China's expansionism in the South China Sea, which has accelerated despite a 2016 international arbitral tribunal ruling invalidating its territorial claims there.”
“Instead, the U.S. has relied on rhetoric or symbolic actions,” he railed.
That rhetoric grew more intense in the Trump Administration’s final years, as well, currently, under Biden. But as of 2022 - China had "fully militarized three islands in the South China Sea, arming them with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment and fighter jets in an increasingly aggressive move that threatens all nations operating nearby,” according to the Guardian, who cited US naval officials.
Then Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of a former dictator, won the Philippines presidential election last year.
Initially, it looked as if Marcos would continue his predecessor’s business of collecting investment promises from Chinese officials in exchange for a "'compromise' over the contested waters," the Washington Post said in an analytical piece last week.
But Marcos’ “resolve to push back against China has been hardening over the past 10 months, fueled by continuing Chinese harassment and several instances when Philippine attempts at de-escalation have been rebuffed by Beijing," news staff noted.
In a surprisingly bold move last month, the Philippine leader ordered his coast guard to cut a 300-meter-long floating barrier that Beijing had installed in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone [EEZ].
Officials then released humiliating images of the act on social media and to international news outlets.
That episode revealed Marcos as the new wildcard in China’s nine-dash-line strategy, and Beijing will angrily assume that the measure of his bravado matches that of Washington’s backing.
Enter the Israel-Hamas war and the “dear friend” in Moscow to help undermine guarantees in the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.
War in the Middle East
Despite China’s long-standing pro-Palestinian stance, which dates back to Mao's revolutionary ideology, Beijing has maintained formal diplomatic relations with Israel since 1992.
Chinese investment and trade with the Jewish state have skyrocketed under Xi Jinping’s leadership with “considerable infrastructure projects undertaken by China in Israel” and “substantial Chinese investments in [Israel’s] advanced technology sectors.”
Now, as Israel prepares to invade Gaza after Hamas’ grisly terrorist attack, however, it appears that the Chairman will forsake that relationship to power up in two regions at once.
In the midst of spiraling tensions, rather than straddle the fence, Beijing quickly joined Moscow in calling for a two-state solution, something that will surely harden positions on both sides, while keeping the U.S. focused on preventing the spread of war.
“When Russian President Vladimir Putin finally called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, he said Russia was trying ‘to help normalize the situation’ in the Gaza Strip . . . But Moscow has little interest in helping Israel. Russia is on the side of Hamas and its patron, Iran — in part to undermine the United States and its allies,” Washington Post’s Josh Rogin wrote last week.
In Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s first remarks since the attack, he told Egypt’s Prime Minister that “A two-state solution to establish an independent Palestine is the ‘fundamental way out’ of the Israel-Hamas conflict.”
“The top priority now is a ceasefire as soon as possible, to avoid the conflict from expanding or even spiraling out of control and causing a serious humanitarian crisis. China is willing to work with Egypt and Arab nations to ‘promote a comprehensive, just and lasting solution to the Palestinian issue,’” he reiterated.
But Xi did not mention whether he would also stop picking up the tab for Iran, who, by bankrolling Hamas’ depravity, opened the gates of Hell on Palestinians. As its largest trade partner, China has been underwriting Iran for the past decade.
Frustrated with a “post-Christian West tied in knots by ‘social issues,’” former official in the Reagan administration and law professor Hugh Hewitt sought to clarify the true nature of Tehran’s, and by extension, Hamas’, main allies, China and Russia, themselves perpetrators of genocide in Xinjiang, Chechnya, and Ukraine.
“This is not the “clash of civilizations” Samuel P. Huntington predicted in the 1990s. It is a clash between the civilized — the West, both as traditionally represented by the nation-state, but also by those peoples held captive by these uncivilized regimes — and the barbaric. Unless we first recognize the barbarity, the depth of the depravity coursing through these three linked regimes, we cannot possible defeat it,” he wrote.
This Week’s China News
The Big Story in China Business
NEW ARRESTS, FOXCONN PROBE ‘RATTLE’ FOREIGN FIRMS IN CHINA:
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to China Boss News to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.