Biden pushes Taiwan Policy towards 'Strategic clarity' -- China Boss update 9.23.22

Update

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What happened.

“President Joe Biden has further stoked U.S.-China tensions by unambiguously pledging a U.S. military response if China tries to invade Taiwan,” Politico’s Phelim Kine wrote last week.

Kine, Politico:

The U.S. military would defend Taiwan “if in fact there was an unprecedented attack” on the self-governing island, Biden said in an interview that aired Sunday on CBS’ “60 Minutes.”

Biden didn’t define what an “unprecedented” attack on Taiwan would look like, but his comments marked the fourth time since August 2021 that he has stated that the U.S. would militarily defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion attempt. And in every case, aides have walked back comments that appear to reverse the longtime policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding U.S. willingness to defend Taiwan.

Oriana Skylar Mastro, center fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, told Politico: “I think we can all be pretty certain at this point that it was not a gaffe — four times in a row … [means] what’s happening is there are people in the administration who think that by demonstrating a greater willingness to defend Taiwan, that’ll help reestablish deterrence.” Emphasis added.

Why it matters.

‘Strategic ambiguity’ on life support, but not yet dead, expert says

American Enterprise Institute’s Zack Cooper also thinks that, even though “White House officials insisted that US policy has not changed, … the reality is that this assertion is no longer tenable,” and “[t]he President is making policy, whether intentionally or not.”

Cooper, AEIdeas:

… Strategic ambiguity exists on a spectrum: Although some frame strategic clarity and strategic ambiguity as binary choices, the reality is that they exist on a spectrum (Chinese policy on Taiwan also exists on a similar spectrum). Biden’s words shift US policy on this spectrum, just as Xi Jinping’s words and actions have done the same in recent years. But Biden’s comments do not amount to full strategic clarity. It remains unclear how the United States would intervene or what would constitute an “unprecedented attack” on Taiwan. Ambiguity may be decreasing, but it is not yet dead. 

Returning the status quo to the Taiwan Strait