Although Cold War analogies have been lambasted as faulty by intellectual powers much greater than mine, U.S.-China relations these days are feeling rather frosty. The U.S.’ announcement that it will not send government officials to the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics triggered a succession of countries - six by my last count (Lithuania, Australia, New Zealand, Scotland, Britain, and Canada) - to do the same. Beijing has fired back with snotty statements from MOFA’s wolf-warrior pack that said the U.S. wasn’t invited anyway and that China wasn’t worried about any “domino effect”, while promising the U.S. would “pay the price” for its “mistaken acts.”
Another reason world politics feels eerily reminiscent of the Cold War is China’s increasing coziness to Russia. VOA news reports that, despite their turbulent past, "China and Russia have strengthened their political, economic and military relations this year” out of resentment for “growing pressure from the West."
VOA:
Russia depends on China’s massive industrial economy for oil and gas exports as environmental rules in the European Union complicate energy imports there, said Vassily Kashin, senior fellow at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
He said two-way relations were at their strongest since the 1950s.
“Most importantly, we have a common position concerning the global order, which is that we don’t like the U.S. global order, so this close partnership is based on common opposition to the U.S.-led global order,” Kashin said.
In what may be viewed as yet another sign of growing closeness, President Xi Jinping has personally invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to the 2022 Winter Olympics. Putin - who will be the “first world leader to meet [Xi] in person since February 2020,” according to the South China Morning Post - has accepted.
What happened this week.
China & Russia join efforts “to denigrate” Biden’s Democracy Summit.
China and Russia attack Biden's 'so-called' Summit of Democracy (Sean Lyngaas, CNN)
Read for the latest on China and Russia’s concerted propaganda blitz “denigrating” Biden’s Democracy Summit which comes off the heels of a November 27 joint essay in which, both countries ambassadors to Washington protested the summit “for creating divisions in the world.” Neither Russia nor China made it onto Biden’s invitee list.
Biden confronts Putin over military build-up along Ukrainian border.
Biden meets Putin: What lies behind Russia’s military build-up (Kadri Liik, European Council on Foreign Relations)
Read for Liik’s fine analysis on the possible motives behind Russia’s military build-up along Ukraine’s border, as well as on the ramifications of more severe economic sanctions that, she says, would "put Russia at the mercy of China” and “decrease its room for manoeuvre."
Why it matters.
Why are China and Russia strengthening ties? (Zaheena Rasheed, Aljazeera)
Read to learn why the deepening of ties between China and Russia “is unprecedented” and how it has spurred the U.S. intelligence community to characterize “China, Russia and their alignment as the biggest security threats to the United States and NATO."
What to watch.
China looks for firmer legal ground for economic ties with Russia (Kinling Lo and Jun Mai, South China Morning Post)
Read for insight into how Beijing views the weak-spots in its economic “integration” with Moscow and how it is moving to address them institutionally.
Go deeper.
China-Russia Cooperation: Determining Factors, Future Trajectories, Implications for the United States (Andrew Radin, Andrew Scobell, Elina Treyger, J.D. Williams, Logan Ma, Howard J. Shatz, Sean M. Zeigler, Eugeniu Han, Clint Reach, 2021 RAND Corp. publication)
Read to learn how China and Russia have been cooperating historically and what their coordination efforts might look like in the future. This is a 322-page long e-book available for free to read online and download. N.B. Chapter 5, “Future Scenarios of Cooperation and Potential Impacts on U.S. Interests,” and the following screenshot of the book’s contents below.
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Have a great weekend.