China is entrenching deep in the Pacific, Plus Taiwan is increasingly alarmed by Trump's TSMC focus 👀 -- China Boss News 2.28.25

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What happened?

🤵📺 While the world fixated on President Trump's media spectacles last week, China quietly redrew the map of Pacific power.

In a move that sent shockwaves through the region, the Cook Islands struck a groundbreaking deal with Beijing.

The Action Plan for Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (2025–2030) opens the door for Chinese-funded dual-use infrastructure projects, blurring the lines between civilian development and military expansion.

🚨 No one was more blindsided than New Zealand, once the Cook Islands' closest strategic partner, which was left entirely out of the discussions.

Despite a long-standing defense relationship under the 2001 Joint Centenary Declaration, Wellington found itself sidelined as the Cook Islands took a decisive step into China's growing sphere of influence.

Why it matters.

China's expanding 'blue economy'

At the heart of the Cook Islands' agreements with Beijing is a sweeping Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Deepening Blue Economy Cooperation, which some analysts see as a strategic maneuver disguised as economic engagement.

While Prime Minister Mark Brown insisted that no formal investment commitments had been made, the MoU paves the way for major infrastructure projects, including upgraded harbors, ports, and airports in the far reaches of the Pa Enua (sister islands to Rarotonga).

"Harbors and ports need upgrades, airports need to be sealed for better connectivity, more flights, and cheaper fares to the Pa Enua," Brown told local media.

However, the agreement's vague language has raised red flags in defense and environmental protection circles.

Although the islands themselves are tiny, their exclusive economic zone covers millions of square kilometers and is rich in untapped seabed critical minerals, such as cobalt, nickel, copper, and rare earth elements.

Located in the South Pacific, the Cook Islands also serves as a gateway to a region traditionally influenced by New Zealand, Australia, and the United States.

While the deal officially focuses on port infrastructure, shipbuilding, deep-sea mining, fisheries, and renewable energy, Chinese-built facilities could efficiently serve the People's Liberation Army (PLA's) military and strategic interests in the future, especially as geopolitical tensions in the Pacific intensify.

Additionally, the Cook Islands signed seabed mineral research and economic cooperation agreements with China, with Beijing providing a ¥20 million RMB ($2.7 million) development aid package.

The deals have sparked fierce debates over potential environmental damage and concerns about the Cook Islands' sovereignty.

While the government insists no mining licenses have been issued, critics fear China's growing economic footprint could translate into political leverage.

At face value, China's "blue economy" investment offers the Cook Islands a lifeline—promising economic diversification, climate resilience, and infrastructure development.

But beneath the surface, China’s support is about power and geopolitical positioning: China isn't just investing—it's entrenching.

A familiar pattern

China has followed a similar playbook elsewhere: economic promises first, military footholds later.

In Djibouti, Beijing built its first overseas military base for $590 million, which analysts say was intended to enhance the PLA's "blue water" capabilities - the ability to operate across the world's oceans - in the Horn of Africa and Indian Ocean.

While initially used for anti-piracy and security operations, the base also opened the tiny African nation up to China's heavy financial influence.

Today, China holds over 70% of Djibouti's debt, fueling concerns over economic dependence.

In Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands, Beijing's influence has steadily expanded, raising fears that dual-use infrastructure could also one day serve Chinese military interests.

The Cook Islands agreement appears to be following the same trajectory—paving the way for strategic infrastructure that could later become a naval resupply hub, leaving the small island nation locked into Chinese obligations it may struggle to repay.

Last week, Financial Times columnist Gillian Tett summed up the dilemma for small nations:

As the US redefines its global strategy with an increasingly unpredictable, imperial-style approach, smaller countries are weighing their options:

1. Align with Washington - as Japan has done with massive US investments

2. Hedge their bets - like Vietnam, balancing ties with both the US and China

3. Throw in their lot with Beijing - as Nicaragua and now the Cook Islands have done

But for New Zealand, Australia, and the US, Beijing's latest move signals an effort to undermine regional security alliances and erode Western influence in the Pacific.

China's agreements with the Solomon Islands and Kiribati had already raised concerns about potential PLA military bases in the Pacific.

And now, the threat is no longer theoretical.

Earlier this week, China’s live-fire naval drills in the Tasman Sea forced 49 civilian flights to divert, highlighting Beijing’s growing military presence.

Australian authorities were caught off guard, learning of the exercises only after a commercial pilot overheard a warning on emergency radio.

The Chinese flotilla conducting the exercise, which included a Type 055 destroyer, a frigate, and a replenishment vessel, had been patrolling the Australian coast since mid-February.

While Australian PM Anthony Albanese criticized the lack of transparency, many analysts view the drills as a show of force against Western influence in the region.

The bottom line is that the Cook Islands' pivot toward China will have lasting consequences.

For the Cook Islands, the promise of growth may come at the cost of great indebtedness, less control over precious resources, and the loss of a long-time ally.

Meanwhile, the US and Australia will respond by continuing to deepen regional economic and security partnerships like the QUAD and AUKUS.

But Beijing's playbook remains unchanged: Today's economic deals lay the groundwork for tomorrow's strategic footholds.

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