China may stay shut for all 2022, Goldman analysts say as Omicron outbreak edges closer to Beijing, PRC may find Taiwan opportunity in Ukraine, & Covid-zero despair in Xi'an -- China Boss News 1.10.22
Newsletter
The Big Story in China Business
"China could stay shut for all 2022," Goldman Sachs says; Omicron variant found in Tianjian and central China
Reports that China’s vaccines offer very little protection against the Omicron variant “will likely reinforce China’s resolve to stick with its Covid Zero strategy,” Goldman Sachs analysts said, according to a research note seen by Bloomberg. The analysts projected that the country’s borders "could stay closed for all of 2022" due to Covid safety concerns during and after the Olympics, as well as "a series of political events," later in the year.
Bloomberg (Aljazeera reprint, no paywall):
Quarantine requirements on travelers arriving from abroad could be kept in place to avoid major disruption to the Winter Olympics, which will begin next month, the annual meeting of the national legislature in March, and the 20th Communist Party Congress in the fourth quarter, the Goldman analysts said.
President Xi Jinping is expected to secure a precedent-breaking third term during the once-in-five-year party event.
With Covid-19 likely to be widespread outside China and with the party congress approaching in the final quarter “we doubt policy makers would eliminate quarantines before then,” the analysts said. “With transmission typically higher in the winter months, it’s possible that border restrictions could be kept largely intact until spring 2023.”
An announcement, reported by Reuters on Friday, that China’s aviation regulator will "focus on expanding domestic flights and restoring international air travel in 2023-2025," seemed to support that timeline.
Reuters:
Taking into account the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021-2025 five year plan has been divided into two parts, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC).
For the 2021-2022 period, China will consolidate its efforts in COVID-19 control and prevention, as well as focusing on reforms and specifying more support measures, so that "developmental momentum" could be unlocked later.
The pandemic situation in China is growing more severe by the day. At time of post, CNN had reported that Omicron had spread to the central province of Henan, some 300 miles away from the city of Tianjin where local health authorities say it was first detected only a few days prior. Tianjian is 30 minutes by high-speed train to Beijing.
CNN:
Genome sequencing of the virus found that it belongs to the same transmission chain as the Tianjin outbreak, according to Henan health authorities. A university student who returned to Anyang from Tianjin on December 28 is believed to have brought back the virus -- suggesting the variant has already been spreading in Tianjin for nearly two weeks, at the least.
…Beijing and Tianjin share a short border and are closely linked. An estimated 100,000 people commute regularly between the two cities for work as of 2020, according to the state-run Global Times.
In a statement Sunday, the Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control advised Beijing residents not to visit Tianjin and those in Tianjin to refrain from traveling to the capital. It also asked commuters between the two cities to work from home. By Sunday evening, train tickets from Tianjin to Beijing could no longer be purchased online.
…Keenly aware of the public health risk and political pressure, Tianjin officials convened a video meeting at 1 a.m. Sunday in a show of their resolution to contain the outbreak.
Li Hongzhong, the Communist Party chief of Tianjin, is widely regarded as an ardent supporter of Chinese President Xi Jinping. At the meeting, Li vowed to take "resolute measures" to "make all-out efforts to block the channels of transmission" and fortify Tianjin's role as a "moat" to protect the capital against the virus.
For the rest of Bloomberg’s update (no paywall), China could stay shut for all of 2022: Goldman Sachs, click here. For the Reuters’ report, China targets 2023-2025 for recovery in international air travel, click here. For CNN’s update, Beijing on high alert as China's first Omicron cluster edges closer weeks before the Olympics, click here.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to China Boss News to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.