How China, Russia and North Korea benefit from South Korea's political chaos, Plus the US could revise its One-China Policy when Trump takes office -- China Boss News 12.06.24

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What happened

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law at 11 p.m. on Tuesday, but parliament quickly rebuked him, leading him to lift the order six hours later.

Yoon did not provide evidence to justify his claims that sending in the military was to protect the nation from threats associated with North Korean forces.

However, instead of further investigation, analysts and the media immediately concluded that Yoon’s rather sudden decision was more focused on countering the opposition Democratic Party's legislative actions.

Yoon's order gave the military extensive powers to maintain security and restrict freedoms. However, there were no reports of military actions during this brief period except for confrontations with protesters opposing the decision.

Following the declaration, South Korea's Defense Minister expressed regret and resigned, taking responsibility for the fiasco.

“All soldiers who performed their duties in relation to the emergency martial law (were acting on) the order of the minister, and all responsibilities lie within myself,” Kim Yong-hyun said amid public outrage.

Why it matters

North Korea and Russia’s dangerous alliance

While Kim may have been forced to fall on his sword in an attempt to save Yoon’s presidency, much context surrounding Yoon’s decision still needs to be reviewed before concluding his motives.

Although Yoon’s move does seem woefully over the top, understanding that South Korea's fiercest political contest in a generation is taking place in one of the most volatile geopolitical climates of the past century will better inform discussions.

On the home front, battle lines between Yoon and the opposition leader, Lee Jae-myung, who seems to tilt towards bona fide foreign dictators, have hardened.

According to the New York Times, Lee, whose parents worked as public toilet cleaners, had a challenging youth as a sweatshop worker, almost losing his left hand.

He became a labor lawyer for two decades, fighting for workers' rights before joining politics in the mid-2000s. He rose through the Democratic Party of Korea, becoming a mayor and provincial governor.

But legal challenges have marred Lee’s political rise, Times’ staff said, including a conviction for lying during his presidential campaign regarding a bribery scandal tied to his time as mayor.

He received a one-year suspended sentence and plans to appeal, although a loss would prevent him from running again in 2027. He also faces other bribery charges, which he denies.

News staff added that state prosecutors, under Yoon, are investigating Lee and his associates, and the opposition claims Yoon is misusing the Ministry of Justice for political persecution.

But what's missing from many news reports, including the Times’, is that Lee has also been implicated in several questionable financial arrangements with North Korea, which some say are evidence of considerable national security breaches.

Then there were those five persons associated with Lee who died during Lee’s criminal investigations, prompting the Washington Post to directly ask the politician if he “should be viewed as a dangerous person.”

Still, in assessing whether Lee is the progressive leader he says or just another opportunist-populist-turned-traitor, we can temporarily set aside his business with Kim Jong-Un and the untimely deaths - yes, I know it’s hard - and ask why he’s taken such a strong stance against Ukraine?

Earlier this month, Lee was forced to apologize for remarks he made belittling Ukraine’s president.

During a televised presidential election debate, Lee stated that a novice politician with six months of experience became the leader and created a major conflict by making a quick promise about Ukraine joining NATO.

In October, Lee accused the government of trying to create conflict on the Korean Peninsula related to North Korea’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war following reports it was considering sending a team to Ukraine to monitor North Korean troops and assess how to better support Kyiv.

Lee’s opposition party was only recently voted into power in parliament but has also been able to stall and block Yoon's latest financial proposals, including a budget intended in part to provide Ukraine with more funds.

In recent weeks, Russia has provided North Korea with new anti-air missiles and air defense equipment, and Kim Jong Un responded in kind with the deployment of over 10,000 North Korean troops to Putin's front lines to be used as cannon fodder.

For Kim, it’s a small sacrifice for greater geostrategic gains. If any of his walking dead make it home alive, their battle experience—together with Russia’s new weaponry—could prove helpful in combating a long-standing enemy neighbor who is also allied to a superpower.

Those developments would seem to inflame tensions between South and North Korea while creating strain with Moscow—and they have. But Lee’s movements against Yoon’s in parliament have not only failed to address the new security situation in which Seoul now finds itself but also seem intent on aggravating it.

It is difficult to say whether that result is due to a random populist stance or—given Lee’s past associations—more malign agency.

But it is a fact and should, at minimum, be considered before hoisting Lee into Yoon’s place.

China

As Kyiv ponders the implications of the latest developments in South Korea, which at least one of its analysts sees as “a result of the Democratic Party's cooperation with autocracies,” we should also not ignore the fact that Lee has taken a clear position against the US semiconductor export restrictions on China.

Under Yoon, who recently began aligning with the United States and diversifying trade, especially in retail and semiconductors, China’s influence on South Korean business and trade has started to suffer.

In 2023, the US became South Korea’s leading trade partner, and companies increased their investments in the US.

According to Bloomberg, in March 2024, the Biden Administration began “pressing allies including the Netherlands, Germany, South Korea, and Japan to tighten further restrictions on China’s access to semiconductor technology.”

It’s “a controversial effort that’s drawing resistance in some countries,” news staff said.

By April, the US had asked Seoul “to restrict the flow of equipment and technologies for making high-end logic and memory chips to China, according to people familiar with the matter,” Bloomberg noted in an update.

That did not sit well with Beijing and, by proxy, its friends in the pro-China business elite who have deep pockets for high representation in Seoul.

To illustrate how substantially South Korean firms are tied to commerce in China, Alicia García Herrero, a Senior Fellow at Bruegel and Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, drew comparisons with Germany’s dependence.

However, one industry stands out.

“In South Korea, semiconductors became the most important export, given China’s appetite for chips, which rank first in China’s import basket, even before oil,” Herrero said.

In September, Trendforce, a semiconductor industry publication, said South Korean officials have been “cautiously responding to US demands due to its significant dependence on the Chinese market.”

But, under Yoon, they were responding. In September, Bloomberg reported that South Korean trade officials sought certain concessions “to encourage Seoul’s compliance.”

Over the past 48 hours, Yoon has faced intense backlash, with calls for his resignation and impeachment from Lee and other political parties, including his own.

The stock market has reacted negatively to the disruption, with South Korean shares falling. Citizens rushed to stock up on essentials, fearing ongoing instability.

It is probably correct if the outcome of Yoon's deplorable decision is impeachment.

But Ukraine will lose Seoul's support for Beijing’s and Russia's benefit.

Relations with Washington will also suffer. The incoming Trump Administration will find it hard to square a military alliance with any nation that refuses to curb the shipment of advanced military tech to China.

That, in turn, risks tilting South Korea again away from global democratic alliances, which include new cooperation with its historical enemy Japan, toward China, Russia, and North Korea’s bona fide strongmen.

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