What happened.
“The tenor of the annual Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD), Asia’s premier security conference, has changed dramatically for the worse,” wrote Kansai Gaidai University Professor Mark S. Cogan in an op-ed describing this year’s International Institute for Strategic Studies’ (IISS) conference in Singapore.
The event, which took place 2–4 June, was a real humdinger. The state of affairs in geopolitics is edgy, right now, China Boss gets it. But you know things are strained when the Dutch and Estonians start launching verbal missiles at China’s political attachés.
But let’s start again.
Why it matters.
US-China showdown takes center stage
As Professor Cogan said, it all began “when Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu rejected a face-to-face meeting with his American counterpart Lloyd Austin, until the U.S. ‘corrected its mistaken actions,’ with speculation that it was because of prior incidents, including former U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and incidents involving Chinese spy balloons in February.”
In response, the US Secretary of Defense went on the offensive by emphasizing strategic gains the US has made in the Indo-Pacific in his conference remarks. Recall that the use of the geopolitical term “Indo-Pacific,” rather than the former designation “Asia Pacific,” is already a jab at China’s regional hegemony.
Cogan, The Diplomat:
In his “Shared Vision for the Indo-Pacific,” the Defense Secretary boasted about the increased U.S. defense capacity in the region, from the deployment of the 12th Marine Littoral Regiment to Japan to protect the First Island Chain, as well as the $9.1 billion boost in military spending for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative.
That got Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu’s goat.
Li is the son of a high-ranking PLA Army commander and has “red-blood,” they say. He is also said to “embod[y] the CCP’s sought-after qualities of an ideal cadre: to be both red and professional.”
Cogan, The Diplomat:
Li’s address to the SLD was no less confrontational. After a dangerous encounter in the Taiwan Strait, China used the speech as an opportunity for rebuttal, stating that the encounter was caused by “hegemonic actions” caused the dispute and that China “must prevent attempts [by those] who want to use freedom of navigation and innocent passage as pretexts to exercise hegemony of navigation.”
That “dangerous encounter” was witnessed by a Canadian TV news crew, who had been aboard the HMCS Montreal, a Canadian frigate participating in a joint mission with the US to sail through the Taiwan Strait. Imagine the electricity in the air as photojournalists from the other side of the world, assigned to document tensions in the region, suddenly spotted ‘[a] People’s Liberation Navy ship pic[k] up considerable speed and cut in front of the bow’” of a US destroyer.
When the Chinese vessel altered its course, [HMCS Montreal’s commander, Capt. Paul Mountford] says the crew called the American ship and told them to move or there would be a collision. The Americans responded by asking the Chinese to stay clear of the ship, but the Chung-Hoon ultimately needed to alter course and slow down to avoid a crash.
Then Europe took aim
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