Marcos Jr. wins Philippine vote by landslide. It's great news for exiled authoritarians, but whether the new leader will tilt further toward China is unclear. -- China Boss Update 5.13.22
Update
What happened.
“Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the late dictator whose family plundered billions of dollars, was elected president of the Philippines by a landslide, according to preliminary results,” the Washington Post reported.
WaPo:
In a speech early Tuesday, Marcos thanked his supporters for their “belief in our message of unity” and their “belief in the candidates.”
The mood was jubilant as the magnitude of their victory became clear and Marcos’s supporters sang and celebrated in front of the campaign headquarters along the same historic Manila avenue where people protested to oust his father more than three decades ago.
But critics say the president-elect’s “platforms and policies are largely unclear” since “he has skipped election debates and interviews with independent media,” and “instead surround[ed] himself with social media personalities and vloggers who enjoy preferential treatment from his campaign.” They also express fears that the election was stolen, citing instances of alleged ballot tampering. Earlier this week, angry citizens “flocked to the Commission on Elections in Manila to protest what they saw as an election riddled with irregularities,” the Washington Post said.
Why it matters.
Authoritarians around the world taking notes, digital media experts say
“For a while, the Marcoses were ‘cancelled’ public pariahs” and “merely extending a social invitation to a Marcos was the stuff of scandal,” University of Massachusetts Amherst global digital media expert Jonathan Corpus Ong wrote in Time Magazine. “But thanks in part to a patient long-term project of brand rehabilitation on social media, and expedient power-brokering with the powerful Dutertes to unify forces against their ‘liberal elite’ rivals, the family has made a successful comeback,” he said.
Ong, Time Magazine:
Tech platforms must now tread very carefully under a leader determined to rewrite his family’s—and the nation’s—history. If they are too hostile, then they might find themselves villainized and restricted, as in other illiberal democracies. Platforms instead need to work collaboratively with academics and legal experts for strategic policy advocacy. Content takedowns and de-platforming alone will not solve the disinformation crisis in the Philippines or elsewhere.
Authoritarian incumbents and exiles around the world are watching the Marcos comeback story with avid interest and have already been given a powerful takeaway. As authors of the first draft of history, the press are Marcos’ first target and an easy one. But his ultimate target is history itself. By recasting himself as the victim of “elite” historians and academics—as the victim, even, of the activists who survived torture and abuse during his father’s dictatorship—Marcos shows that false victimhood claims can effectively appeal to an anxious public when packaged in compelling myth and melodrama.
Potential implications for U.S. and security in South China Sea
“With Southeast Asia being an important theater of the tussle for dominance between the U.S. and China,” foreign policy experts believe Marcos’ presidency will be closely watched in Washington for signs of greater alignment with Beijing, CNBC reported.
CNBC:
In the South China Sea, China is embroiled in maritime disputes with a number of countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam, along with the Philippines.
“When he started his campaign, Marcos Jr. started with an appeasing position on China. But as he went into the campaign he was able to listen to the clamor of the Filipino people, who were concerned over China’s aggression in areas that were contrary to Philippine national interests,” [Victor Manhit, managing director of advisory firm BowerGroupAsia] said.
Marcos Jr.‘s sense of the Philippines’ place in the world could drive policy in a radically opposite direction from Duterte, he said.
Other analysts, however, say “the new leader will likely have less room for maneuver than his predecessor.”
CNBC:
“The Philippines tried an outstretched hand, and China bit it. That is why the Duterte government has re-embraced the U.S. alliance and gotten tougher on Beijing over the last two years,” said Gregory Poling, a senior fellow and director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in a note.
“The Philippine public and bureaucracy are even more distrustful of China than they were six years ago in the wake of their landmark arbitration victory in the South China Sea,” Poling said.
“Marcos Jr. might try to revive Duterte’s early outreach to Beijing, but he is unlikely to toss the U.S. alliance overboard as part of the effort,” he said.
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The wild poppies near my home in Flanders are in bloom! Have a nice weekend.