NATO: China a 'decisive enabler' of Russia's war in Ukraine, Plus AI startups are bailing on Beijing -- China Boss News 7.12.24

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Source: NATO, July 10, 2024.

What happened

In their harshest words to date, NATO leaders on Wednesday accused China of being a "decisive enabler" of Russia's war in Ukraine as the alliance and its Asian partners wrapped up a 3-day summit in Washington hosted by President Biden.

"The PRC has become a decisive enabler of Russia's war against Ukraine through its so-called 'no limits' partnership and its large-scale support for Russia's defense industrial base.  This increases the threat Russia poses to its neighbors and to Euro-Atlantic security. We call on the PRC, as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council with a particular responsibility to uphold the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, to cease all material and political support to Russia's war effort.  This includes the transfer of dual-use materials, such as weapons components, equipment, and raw materials that serve as inputs for Russia's defense sector.  The PRC cannot enable the largest war in Europe in recent history without this negatively impacting its interests and reputation," NATO's official communiqué read (para. 26).

The Alliance also placed new emphasis on China's increasing capabilities and actions in space and expressed concerns over its "'malicious cyber and hybrid activities, including disinformation, and 'rapidly' expanding nuclear arsenal," according to CNN.

"The PRC continues to pose systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security.  We have seen sustained malicious cyber and hybrid activities, including disinformation, stemming from the PRC.  We call on the PRC to uphold its commitment to act responsibly in cyberspace.  We are concerned by developments in the PRC's space capabilities and activities.  We call on the PRC to support international efforts to promote responsible space behavior. The PRC continues to rapidly expand and diversify its nuclear arsenal with more warheads and a larger number of sophisticated delivery systems.  We urge the PRC to engage in strategic risk reduction discussions and promote stability through transparency." (Communiqué, para. 27).

Why it matters

'Security convergence' between East and West

As competition intensifies between the US and China, countries with common defense concerns are enhancing their partnerships in a "security convergence between the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions," Wooyeal Paik, deputy director at the Yonsei Institute of North Korean Studies and director of the Center for Security Strategy at the Aerospace Strategy & Technology Institute at Yonsei University in Seoul, said.

"South Korea, which has said it could consider providing lethal weapons to Ukraine, already plays a key role in bolstering NATO's military capabilities against Russia through significant sales of advanced conventional weapons. Japan is likely to intensify its anti-Russia policies. The possibility of a Nato-like security arrangement in East Asia or the Indo-Pacific, which China vehemently opposes, is now viewed as increasingly plausible and justifiable," Paik wrote in a South China Morning Post op-ed.

In a further dramatic illustration of the trend, Chinese and Belarusian troops commenced joint military drills just five kilometers from the Polish border the day before the NATO summit began.

Chinese state media said the drills were to carry out counterterrorism operations and strengthen interoperability between the PLA and Belarus' military.

But former Belarusian diplomat Pavel Slunkin told Politico's China Watcher, "this could well be an upgrade of existing military cooperation between China and Belarus."

"They did trainings before but I don't recall any similar joint exercises in Belarus on this scale," he said before adding that "Belarus' military exercises were usually focused on Russia or the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization."

In remarks at Tuesday's NATO Summit Defense Industry Forum, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan announced that transatlantic security leaders have "deepened NATO's cooperation with partners in the Indo-Pacific.

"What happens in Europe impacts the Indo-Pacific. What happens in the Indo-Pacific impacts Europe. We see this every day," he said as officials from New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea, attending the NATO summit for a third consecutive year, looked on.

EU-China ties 'on a downward spiral'

However, more interesting - and certainly more consequential - is how Europeans now see the security nexus between the Indo-Pacific and their region.

In comments made last week at the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think-tank, US' top diplomat, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, elaborated on the remarkable transformation after three long years of war in Ukraine.

As I'm looking at Europe, as I'm looking at critical partners in Asia, as I said before, the convergence in the approach – both the shared recognition of what the challenge is and, increasingly, a shared view on what to do about it – that's much greater than it's ever been.

There's something else that's changed, and I think, again, you'll see this at the NATO summit.  We have four partners from the Indo-Pacific coming to the NATO summit, as they have for the last three years: Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Korea.  This is one manifestation and one recognition of something that really is new, which is that increasingly partners in Europe see challenges halfway around the world in Asia as being relevant to them, just as partners in Asia see challenges halfway around the world in Europe as being relevant to them. 

Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, assistant professor at National Dong Hwa University in Taiwan, was more frank when told the South China Morning Post that "EU-China ties were 'on a downward spiral,’" as a result of "‘China's continuous support to Russia in the aggression against Ukraine.’”

"Pulling Belarus closer into China's orbit eventually also helps Russia in keeping pressure on Europe's own neighborhood. While it is not in Beijing's interest to add more oil to the fire in its ties with Europe, a Belarus more aligned with China and its world view may further intensify EU-China tension," she added, referring to Beijing's decision to hold military drills with Minsk near the Polish border.

Finally, any retelling of this news would be insufficient without mentioning CNN's latest bombshell report that NATO allies are discussing reclaiming some Chinese-owned infrastructure in Europe.

Eastern Europe is connected to China through rail lines, and there are ports in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea that have received billions of dollars in infrastructure investments from China as part of the Belt & Road Initiative, which European nations started joining in 2013.

However, it now seems that European officials are increasingly concerned "that Beijing could use the infrastructure it owns in Europe to provide material assistance to Russia if the [Ukraine] conflict were to expand."

Although talks are still in the exploratory phase, some NATO partners are pressing to eliminate the threat sooner rather than wait until military conflict begins.

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