Putin's "axis of autocrats" wouldn't be complete without Xi Jinping -- China Boss Update 9.16.22
Update
What happened.
Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin wrote last week that “Putin is trying to build a new axis of autocrats,” by “devoting considerable time and energy . . . that is bringing Moscow into ever tighter collaboration with China, North Korea and Iran.”
Rogin, WaPo:
Since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February, Moscow, Beijing, Pyongyang and Tehran have been working to upgrade their cooperation. Sharing a common set of anti-American grievances and anti-Western objectives, these dictators are finding new ways to work together on both the tactical and strategic levels.
“Strategic circumstances are driving these countries together,” to cooperate in more active and complex ways, a senior Biden administration official told me — and U.S. strategy has yet to adapt.
Why it matters.
Beyond the propaganda
At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Uzbekistan this week, Putin “thanked” Chinese leader Xi Jinping for “his ‘balanced’ approach to the Ukrainian crisis and blasted Washington's ‘ugly’ policies . . . follow[ing] a major setback for Moscow on the battlefield,” the Associated Press reported.
High on the agenda for Russia, China, Iran and other, mostly ex-Soviet, nations is “[t]he narrative these countries want to advance [which] is that there is another order out there beyond the Western-imposed one,” Senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore and author of "Sinostan: China's Inadvertent Empire" Raffaello Pantucci wrote in Nikkei Asia.
Pantucci, Nikkei Asia:
For all of these powers, there is a pleasing visual utility to being present at a colloquium of such stature, representing at least a third of the world's population and with no Westerners present. They can all show that notwithstanding the sanctions or sanctimony thrown at them by the West, they have allies of substance who welcome them with open arms.
But for Putin much more is at stake than getting photo-ops right. The war in Ukraine has deepened Moscow’s dependence on Beijing for defense, energy and financial support, and, while “China is not providing weapons to Russia directly, their military cooperation continues to deepen” with the PLA volunteering 2,000 troops for “Putin’s ‘Vostok 2022’ joint military exercises taking place in far eastern Russia,” according to Rogin’s WaPo analysis. I also wrote about the strengthening of Sino-Russian military ties in last week’s newsletter. (See below.)
Before their SCO talks this week near Uzbekistan’s ancient silk road, however China and Russia had also “signed a series of gas deals that will be executed in their own currencies, a step toward establishing independence from the U.S. dollar and avoiding U.S. sanctions,” Rogin noted.
Of greater significance, still, China Boss thinks, is the news today from Euractive, reporting that Moscow's energy minister said on Russian state television "[a] Russian pipeline to China will replace the Nord Stream 2 gas link to Europe, abandoned amid the Ukraine conflict.” The minister said later that the two countries “would soon sign agreements on the delivery of ‘50 billion cubic metres of gas’ per year via the future Force 2 pipeline in Siberia.”
Euractiv:
This volume will almost represent the maximum capacity of Nord Stream 1 — 55 billion cubic metres in total — which has been shut down since September 2.
A third of Russian gas supplies to the European Union had passed through the strategic pipeline, which links Russia to Germany.
Force Siberia 2 will fuel China’s energy-guzzling economy, partly via Mongolia.
Construction is due to start in 2024.
Xi takes the helm in Putin’s battle against “color-revolutions”
In January, after a week of violent protests in Kazakhstan, Putin told an online meeting of regional heads of state "he [would] not allow governments allied with Moscow to be toppled in so-called 'color revolutions,’ a reference to the series of popular uprisings that have shaken former Soviet republics,” Voice of America said.
VOA:
Putin alleged Monday that the violent unrest in Kazakhstan was carried out by terrorists trained abroad. He said the violence bore the hallmarks of a Western-coordinated Maidan operation, a reference to the protests that toppled Ukraine’s pro-Moscow leader in 2014.
“Well-organized and well-controlled groups of militants were used,” Putin said at the CSTO meeting. “(They]) had obviously received training in terrorist camps abroad,” he added.
The Russian Defense Ministry also announced that Moscow had deployed “around 3,000 paratroopers and other service personnel” who “were being flown to Kazakhstan ‘around the clock’” to help restore order. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the time “questioned” Moscow’s motives, saying Kazakhstan was fully capable of “maintain[ing] law and order, to defend the institutions of the state, but to do so in a way that respects the rights of peaceful protesters and also addresses the concerns that they’ve raised — economic concerns, some political concerns.”
Then came Putin’s grand f-up in Ukraine, when - after almost certainly overstating Russian military abilities to Xi as they met to discuss the details of the “strategic partnership” during the Beijing Winter Olympics - and Xi almost certainly believing the hype which would explain why Chinese citizens living in Ukraine were told by the foreign ministry “to settle at home for two weeks” instead of evacuating and to put Chinese flags on their vehicles “if they were travelling” - dreams of overwhelming Kyiv with Russian might were never realized. Rather, what was supposed to be a “special military operation” that would last a fortnight turned into tens of thousands of Russian troops dead, an International Criminal Court investigation into war crimes, and the mother of all sanctions - being cut off from the international financial messaging system SWIFT which Russia uses for its most lucrative export payments - all of which have fallen squarely on Vlad’s head. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine wages on some six months later with news of a retreat that “pokes holes in Putin’s projection of force,” the New York Times says.
But despots and tyrants around the world can, at least for the time-being, rest easy. With Putin clearly biting off more than he can chew in Ukraine, President Xi has taken it upon himself to protect them from democracy. At the SCO summit on Friday, Xi “called on Russia and other members . . . to support each other in preventing foreign powers from instigating ‘colour revolutions’” and “said member countries should support the efforts each other have made to safeguard their own security and development interests,” Reuters reported.
Reuters:
[Xi] also said that China will train 2,000 law enforcement personnel from member countries over the next five years and set up a training base focusing on anti-terrorism work.
He invited member countries to sign up to China's Global Security Initiative, a concept he proposed in April which includes the idea that no country should strengthen its own security at the expense of others.
China will provide 1.5 billion yuan ($214 million) worth of grain and other emergency aid to developing countries, Xi said, adding that the Chinese economy is resilient and "full of potential".
Watch on YouTube.
****
Have a great weekend.
