Russian war drone factory exposes China to 'lethal aid' sanctions, Plus Beijing probes major fashion retailer to counter Xinjiang bans -- China Boss News 9.27.24
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What happened
European intelligence sources told Reuters that Russia has a lethal weapons program in China to develop and produce long-range attack drones for its conflict in Ukraine.
The subsidiary of a Russian state-owned weapons company has designed a new drone model called Garpiya-3 (G3) in China. Reuters says the drone can travel "about 2,000 km with a payload of 50 kg. "
The company has reported to the Russian defense ministry that it can manufacture these drones at scale in a Chinese factory for deployment in Ukraine.
If the allegations are true, then China would be exposed to heavier sanctions for its "material support" - i.e., lethal aid - to Moscow.
Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, told news staff that "delivery of UAVs from China to Russia, if confirmed, would be a significant development."
"If you look at what China is known to have delivered so far, it was mostly dual-use goods - it was components, sub-components, that could be used in weapon systems. This is what has been reported so far. But what we haven't really seen, at least in the open source, are documented transfers of whole weapon systems," he said.
When questioned by news staff, China's foreign ministry responded that it was unaware of such a project and emphasized Beijing's strict controls on drone exports.
Why it matters
'Material support' timeline
Some analysts Reuters interviewed were more cautious about jumping to conclusions.
Samuel Bendett, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, DC, argued that "Beijing would be hesitant to open itself up to international sanctions for helping Moscow's war machine" and that "more information was needed to establish that China was playing host to production of Russian military drones."
But US officials, including President Biden and State Department, Pentagon, and Treasury chiefs, have privately warned China numerous times over the past couple of years not to provide "material support" in the form of lethal aid to the Russian military. Without reason, they would be unlikely to agitate an already unsteady relationship in closed meetings.
Those warnings began early in Russia's invasion during a two-hour videoconference between President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on March 18, 2022. I reported on that (see below) the same day.
When Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met later that year at the Shangri-La Dialogue to discuss global and regional security issues, Austin "strongly discouraged China from providing material support to Russia for its war in Ukraine."
When US Secretary of State Blinken met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in February 2023 to discuss the spy balloon incident, he also warned that providing 'lethal aid' to Moscow would have severe consequences for US-China relations.
By May of the same year, desperate to end the violence, the US changed tack and tried to turn China into a genuine peacemaker.
It didn't work, and US Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen flew to Beijing in April 2024 to warn of "significant consequences" for Chinese companies who provide "material support for Russia's war against Ukraine."
Meanwhile, Europe was having its own epiphany about the intersection between Putin's aggression in Ukraine and China business.
In March 2022, I wrote that" '[m]aterial support'" for Putin's war is the red line that Beijing must not cross if it wants to avoid similar economic sanctions that have been imposed on Russia by Europe and the United States."
"But China's stance has 'made life harder for itself,' [citing the George Marshall Fund Asia Program's Andrew Small], and, going forward, China Boss thinks Russia's increased dependence on the Middle Kingdom will elicit the kind of assistance 'material' enough to warrant [heavier] Western sanctions," I said.
True, some have puzzled over Beijing's motive for knowingly exposing itself to Russia-style sanctions.
But others have squared possible reasons why China might give Russia lethal support for its war in Ukraine with the leadership’s geopolitical aims.
Financial Times' Gideon Rachman argued that providing weapons to Russia could signal China views intensified rivalry with the US as inevitable, while withholding support may indicate the opposite.
In a nutshell, Rachman hypothesized that China's advisors may believe they can control escalation risk and be in a pivotal position to scavenge the ravages of war while influencing peace talks in Ukraine.
But to balance these risks, China could also opt for covert military support to Russia through intermediaries like Iran or North Korea.
That approach is far from foolproof, however, and could still lead to confrontation.
Looking for the floor
In terms of global image, it's unsettling to think that China - once a shining beacon of opening and development - could further fall after stonewalling inquiries into COVID-19 - which has killed more than 7 million people worldwide.
But it can.
Earlier this month, the Financial Times reported that the US had openly accused China of providing 'lethal aid' to Russia for the first time.
Without providing evidence, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said that Beijing is supplying components to Moscow to bolster its war machine. At the same time, Russia helps China with military technologies—notably, "submarine, aeronautic, and missile."
Worse, Campbell claimed, is that "Beijing's support for Moscow's defense industry comes directly from the top leadership of the People's Republic of China," VOA news staff said.
During a House hearing, Campbell revealed that the US underestimated the extent of collaboration between Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi. He expressed concern over China's backing of Russia and its impact on battlefield capabilities, particularly in Ukraine's airspace.
"The most worrisome thing is that [China's support for Russia] comes from the very top. [C]hips, some design features, some capacities associated with the making of explosives have been enhancing Russia's battlefield operations."
"We see the role of UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones] and other capacities that are penetrating the Ukrainian airspace. Much of that has been supported surreptitiously by China, and it raises real concerns."
If Campbell's allegations turn out to be accurate, the development is likely to significantly impact how the international community views China's role in Russia's war against Ukraine.
In a timely example, former Canadian diplomat Michael Kovrig's recent warning about the increasing investment risk in China was a call to action for Canadian companies to reassess their business prospects.
Kovrig, detained in China for nearly three years with another Canadian in a diplomatic spat, said the Chinese market may not be worth the geopolitical risks.
"If you are able to … take your ball and bat and go somewhere else. If you can invest elsewhere just as easily, you should be prioritizing other markets. If you have to be in China, then you need an exit strategy," he said.
Relatedly, top European officials, like Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, now insist on "[h]old[ing] China responsible for helping Russia."
In an interview during last week's UN General Assembly, Frederiksen also warned of the global consequences of Russia, North Korea, Iran, and China's close cooperation.
"I don't think it would be possible for Russia to have a full-scale war for more than two-and-a-half years now without help from China. We cannot continue a situation where China helps Russia in a war in Europe without consequences. … You cannot, on the one hand, let Russia attack another European country and continue like nothing has happened," she said.
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