The extraordinary realignment away from China since Putin invaded Ukraine -- China Boss update 4.14.23
Update
What happened.
South Korean writer and journalist Se-Woong Koo last week said in a discerning New York Times op-ed that “fear of China, the powerful neighbor on our opposite side, is helping to break [South Korea’s] anti-Japan spell.”
Koo, NYT:
President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea, a conservative, realizes the need for a change. With one eye on China (and North Korea), he has been busy making nice with Japan. Last month his administration proposed a compromise resolution to a decades-old dispute over compensation for conscripted Korean laborers during World War II. (Rather than insisting that Japanese companies that used the laborers pay the compensation, a South Korean government-run fund would do it.)
Mr. Yoon quickly followed up with a state visit to Japan — the first between the two countries in 12 years — where he tossed back a beer with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
Having a brewski with a neighboring head of state might seem trivial, but in South Korea-Japan relations, it’s a news-worthy development.
The March summit between President Yoon and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was aimed at “building trust” and came off better than anticipated. English language newspaper The Korean Times said it “ended in an amicable mood, painting a rosier outlook for Korea-Japan ties that in recent years had plunged to their lowest point in decades over historical issues.”
The Korean Times:
Reportedly, the two leaders mixed the drinks to make "somaek" cocktails, which is a portmanteau of soju and beer ("maekju" in Korean), to symbolize the friendship between the two countries.
Sources said Kishida complimented the drink as "the taste of friendship," while Yoon told Kishida that he wants to improve bilateral relations to the peak status during his tenure.
China wasn’t publicly mentioned during or after the summit. But its presence still loomed. Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin said the new partnership comes just after “Japan is doubling its defense spending over the next five years” to be ready in the event of a Taiwan conflict, and that “South Korea is weaning itself off dependence on the Chinese market and supply chains to protect its own economy.”
Why it matters.
A pervasive sense of global insecurity
Something phenomenal is happening: There’s a new tendency among states to look beyond themselves to find security in numbers. Russia’s war in Ukraine has left European confidence shattered, and the “pervasive sense of insecurity around the world” is topic du jour at the UN Security Council.
But instead of seizing an opportunity to lift China’s place in the world, Chinese leader Xi Jinping turned up the dial on threats against Taiwan and deepened his alliance with the man who is still laying atrocities at Europe’s door.
Unsurprisingly, states in the region are seeking to strengthen NATO to better protect themselves. But while enlargement of the trans-Atlantic alliance, as Putin’s aggression unsettles Finland and Sweden, might not come as a surprise, the day when it reaches into the Indo-Pacific - once unthinkable - has already arrived.
Dr. Liselotte Odgaard, The Diplomat:
. . . Stronger NATO bonds to Indo-Pacific partners are intended as support for European allies in defending themselves against Chinese security challenges.
NATO’s Indo-Pacific partners are not strategic in the sense that they are expected to contribute to the alliance’s military strategic concepts and plans and strengthen its defenses. Instead, they are cooperative security partners that signify NATO’s enlargement process of going global and countering challenges from competitors with like-minded partners outside of the Euro-Atlantic area. China is not overly concerned about NATO’s enhanced engagement with Indo-Pacific partners such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand seen in isolation. It is the coordinated response to China challenges between entities that are aligned with the United States, including the EU, NATO, and Indo-Pacific partners, across multiple military and non-military domains that are considered a formidable security challenge to China.
Emphasis added.
Developing and middle income countries
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