The global fallout from Hong Kong 47's lengthy jail sentences, Plus China at high risk of losing trade status in US -- China Boss News 11.22.24

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What happened

Over 40 well-known pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong have received prison sentences of up to 10 years for subversion charges, marking a significant setback for political freedoms in the city.

Among those sentenced were Joshua Wong, a prominent student leader who yelled out "I love Hong Kong" before being led away by police, and Benny Tai, who received a stunning 10 years for organizing an "unofficial" primary election in 2020.

Forty-five defendants, including former lawmakers, activists, and journalists, received sentences totaling over 240 years, the harshest punishment yet under a national security law enforced by Beijing four years ago.

Reactions around the world poured in, condemning the jailing of pro-democracy Hong Kongers as "troubling," "a travesty of justice," and "political theatre."

In the US, activists and lawmakers joined together on Capitol Hill to demand "a swift and stern US policy response."

Republican Chris Smith, Chairman of the US Congressional-Executive Commission on China (CECC), decried the Hong Kong government for "seeking US investments in the very same week that it brutally silences free speech and jails pro-democracy advocates."

"The Chinese Communist Party is asking US financial institutions to subsidize their repression in Hong Kong ... Instead of investment, the Biden Administration must sanction the judges, police, and prosecutors engaged in the political prosecutions of the HK 47 (democrats) and Jimmy Lai," he said.

The US Department of State strongly condemned the harsh sentences given to the pro-democracy supporters, who, it said, "now face life-altering imprisonment simply for their peaceful participation in political activities.” After, spokesman Matthew Millers said the US would impose new sanctions on local officials.

"In response, the Department of State is taking steps to impose new visa restrictions on multiple Hong Kong officials responsible for the implementation of the NSL, pursuant to Section 212(a)(3)(C) of the Immigration and Nationality Act.  We will continue to monitor the implementation of Hong Kong's national security laws and promote accountability for human rights in the PRC and Hong Kong," Miller said.

Why it matters

Another PR disaster for China

CNN staff noted that the sentenced had already been in custody for more than three years, and many defendants had lost weight from their detention.

The court proceedings evoked emotional reactions from families and supporters, with police maintaining a heavy presence outside the court.

Even Chris Tang, the former police chief during the 2019 protests, called the sentences handed out "heavy."

"The heavy sentence sends a message to the society that we will not tolerate any crime endangering national security, including subverting the state," he told CNN.

The crackdown follows massive pro-democracy protests in 2019, transforming Hong Kong from a lively city of dissent to one mirroring China's authoritarian regime.

Since then, the global image of Hong Kong has gone off the rails.

Earlier this year, former chair of Morgan Stanley Asia Stephen Roach wrote a widely read op-ed in the Financial Times that declared Hong Kong's glory days as a "bastion" of free market enterprise "over."

Roach attributed Hong Kong's decline to three factors: Carrie Lam's proposal for an extradition arrangement with China, which triggered massive pro-democracy protests in 2019-20, followed by China imposing a national security law that eroded local political autonomy; China's challenges like debt, deflation, and demography that impact Hong Kong's stock market, and global dynamics, including deteriorating US-China relations, catching Hong Kong in the crossfire.

Hong Kong dropped in HSBC's 2021 Expat Explorer Survey rankings to 40th livability and 41st in future outlook. Singapore ranked ninth, and Taiwan ranked 15th globally.

In the same year, the Heritage Foundation said it no longer considered Hong Kong—which is supposed to be governed under the 'One country, two systems' policy—separate economically due to Chinese government interference.

For Chief Executive John Lee, a former police chief charged with the impossible task of bowing to Xi Jinping's obsessive need for control while repairing the city's image among businesses and tourists - post-Covid tourism has rebounded nearly everywhere, except in Hong Kong - it's a losing situation.

Under Lee's government, which, for obvious human resources-related reasons, focuses heavily on security and alignment with mainland policies, concerns about the city's direction before this week's sentencing of the Hong Kong 47 were already growing.

Add to a falling stock market and record-low birth rates the more recent displays of extreme nationalism by the city's young new lawmakers, who ignore local problems to participate in activities aimed at impressing Beijing. It's no wonder that, as Roach predicted, Hong Kong has become "mired in a trap made in China."

Martyrs and movements

But for Beijing, too, this is no great thing.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping, whom city administrators keep closely informed of developments, has chosen to be feared rather than respected.

He will succeed in making the Hong Kong 47 an example that much of the rest of China and Hong Kong will not want to follow.

But there, his accomplishment ends, and even he seems to understand that his "One Country, Two Systems" model for Hong Kong has become a public relations disaster in Taiwan.

Neither will the decision bode well in China’s other foreign relations or for the vastly underappreciated soft power it once gained from prolific tourism and trade with other Asian countries, Europe, the US, and Global South democracies.

Still, one potential benefactor is Russian President Vladimir Putin, who - due to China’s coming rise in ostracism - can probably count on the China-Russia "Strategic Partnership" for a bit longer.

That's plenty of time for merciless autocrats, including Xi himself, who hang by a thread in their Dark Triad worlds, to increase the odds of a prolonged survival.

In their wake, they regularly leave death and heartache.

But they can also birth political movements, which can have all sorts of unforeseen consequences.

Don't take my word for it; take that of former Stand News reporter Gwyneth Ho, one of the 47 jailed activists, who managed to smuggle a long message out of prison to share with her 97,000 Facebook followers on the day of sentencing.

Stand News is now defunct. Its journalists were among the first to be tried for sedition in Hong Kong under Beijing's national security law.  

Here are a few lines Ho wrote:  

"Behind the rhetoric of secession, collusion with foreign forces, etc., our true crime, for Beijing, is that we were not content with playing along in manipulated elections. We organized ourselves to rise above partisan fragmentation, came together, and attempted to break through. We dared to reach for actual power to hold the government accountable. Even though it was enshrined as a right of the people under the Basic Law, Beijing never planned to see it actualized.

We dared to confront the regime with the question: Will democracy ever be possible within such a structure? The answer was a complete crackdown on all fronts of society."

Bloomberg Columnist and Editor Matthew Brooker was so moved he described Ho as "[a] moral giant, imprisoned by pygmies."

Another post by Ho, who is bilingual, was written in Chinese. The choice was not accidental; she meant her message not only for Hong Kong but for all of China's people.

“History is not written by victors but by free and determined people.

No one can define ‘What Hong Kong is,’ but everyone can expand on ‘What Hong Kong can be.’

Now, I have nothing left but the knowledge I have explored, the courage I have witnessed, and the passion I have experienced. I am happy that I am still curious, with clear and noble aspirations. I sincerely hope that you too have the courage to face yourself, then develop yourself, experience the world, and interact with others. Do not content yourself with the illusion of ‘freedom of thought.’ You must be free in this world," Ho said.

Ho received a sentence of 7 years last week. You can read more of her statement here.

In his ignorance of the West and Hong Kong's innate connections to it, Xi Jinping and his mindlessly loyal Hong Kong cronies overlooked a crucial detail from which they will not recover: The Hong Kong 47 are not part of a helpless backwater ethnic minority which is quickly repressed and smothered into silence.

They are highly educated, bicultural, and sophisticated communicators with political organizing skills.

They also have an actual work ethic on par with that found in the distorted written extolments of China's ruler.

But, young as they are - with growing global admiration - they almost certainly have more staying power. Ho is right, history belongs to them.

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