There's an alarming increase in support for China's use of force against Taiwan, Plus US tariffs won't break China's steel empire -- China Boss News 2.14.25
Newsletter -- *No paywall!
What happened?
The Economist has reported that at least 70 countries now recognize China's sovereignty over Taiwan and endorse Beijing's right to use "all efforts"—including force—for unification.
Taiwan's international status has long been a flashpoint, with China systematically working to isolate the island diplomatically.
Beijing considers Taiwan a part of its territory and has used economic influence, political pressure, and military threats to weaken Taiwan's global standing.
But what makes this report particularly alarming is the rapid shift in global sentiment.
Over the past 18 months, China has intensified its diplomatic campaign, particularly in the Global South.
The result is that today, there's a discernible trend upward in the number of countries that explicitly support the right to use force—at Beijing's discretion—to bring Taiwan to heel.
Why it matters.
Accelerating the pressure
According to The Economist, China has intensified its diplomatic offensive to prevent the kind of global isolation and sanctions Russia faced after invading Ukraine.
By securing legitimacy for its actions in advance, Beijing aims to maintain trade partnerships and resource access should a conflict arise.
For maximum pressure, China employs its "Three Warfares" strategy—psychological, public opinion, and legal measures—to extinguish Taiwan's international standing and diplomatic reach.
Although nations like Japan and some EU members have become more vocal in supporting Taiwan's presence in international forums, China's influence continues to expand.
Countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Malaysia have recently shifted their stance, abandoning earlier calls for a peaceful resolution.
A particularly striking victory for Beijing came last September when 53 African nations signed a joint statement endorsing China's reunification efforts.
The Beijing Declaration on Jointly Building an All-Weather China-Africa Community with a Shared Future for the New Era was an astounding escalation from previous bilateral and multilateral declarations advocating peace.
🕵️♀️ A key excerpt from paragraph I(5):
"China reaffirms its firm support for Africa's efforts to safeguard national independence and unity, territorial integrity, sovereignty, security and development interests.
Africa reaffirms its firm commitment to the one-China principle, and reaffirms that there is but one China in the world, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory and the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China, and firmly supports all efforts by the Chinese government to achieve national reunification.
Issues related to Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Xizang are China's internal affairs, as observed in international law and the noninterference principle."
(Emphasis added.)
Note that the declaration also referenced Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and "Xizang" (China's preferred term for Tibet), signaling a broader endorsement of Beijing's territorial assertions.
China remains wary of a potential shift in Taiwan policy under a future Trump administration, particularly given Panama's recent departure from the Belt and Road Initiative.
But America must have global support and access to bases in other countries in a conflict. If a majority at the UN sees its actions as illegitimate, even allies may waver.
As The Economist bluntly noted:
"It has been tough enough for the West to sustain international solidarity with Ukraine, whose sovereignty was not in dispute before Russia invaded. The battle for global support on Taiwan will be even harder fought."
Showing sharp power
China once wielded soft power in its foreign policy. Those days are over.
Today, Beijing is seen as a coercive force, using economic leverage, political pressure, and military intimidation to isolate Taiwan and reshape global perceptions of its sovereignty.
For decades, China has systematically erased Taiwan's international presence.
Since the 1971 UN resolution recognizing the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the legitimate government, Taiwan has been shut out of key international organizations like the UN, WHO, and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
Even during the COVID-19 pandemic—when Taiwan's public health success was widely praised—China ensured its exclusion from the WHO.
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is also used as its diplomatic weapon, persuading nations like Panama, El Salvador, and the Solomon Islands to cut ties with Taipei in exchange for economic incentives.
But Beijing didn't stop at pressuring governments—it turned its attention to the private sector in an apparent effort to smother any inference of Taiwan's sovereign status.
Multinational corporations, airlines, and hotel chains have been strong-armed to recognize Taiwan as part of China or risk losing access to China's enormous market.
Yet economic and diplomatic coercion was just the beginning.
China has escalated its military intimidation, routinely conducting aggressive military drills, violating Taiwan's airspace, and asserting territorial claims over the Taiwan Strait.
Each provocation serves as a warning to Taiwan and a message to other nations: supporting Taipei has consequences.
As a result of Beijing's sustained and elevated psychological, public opinion, and legal pressure, Taiwan's formal diplomatic allies have dwindled to just over a dozen small, economically vulnerable nations.
Taiwan has fought back by strengthening unofficial partnerships with the US, Japan, and European nations, bolstering trade ties, and showcasing its strengths in technology and public health. Taiwan's humanitarian aid efforts, particularly during the pandemic, earned goodwill and renewed calls for its inclusion in global institutions.
Yet, Taiwan's struggle is now an international dilemma—one with implications far beyond its borders. Many smaller nations are beginning to fear that China's tightening grip on Taiwan could foreshadow what might happen to them.
As Palau's President Surangel Whipps Jr. said in an interview with The Washington Post last year, Beijing's pressure is relentless.
Palau’s leader, one of Taiwan's few remaining allies in the Pacific, was forced to change his telephone number following irate calls from a Chinese official.
"China sees an opportunity. They are trying to get the message across: Join us, and you'll be better off. And it is tempting when you're hit with covid, when you have a lot of debt, when your country is up against the wall and China says we should do all of this for you," he stated.
"We know that if we all sever ties with Taiwan, that just gives China a green light to take over Taiwan. For a small island like us, that is kind of scary," he said.
This Week's China News
The Big Story in China Business
US TARIFFS WON’T BREAK CHINA’S STEEL EMPIRE: James Palmer of the China desk at Foreign Policy had some interesting analysis last week on whether Trump's tariffs might dent Chinese steel production.
China's steel and aluminum industries are behemoths, accounting for 54% of the world's steel and nearly 60% of its aluminum.
But even as its once-booming property sector collapses and domestic demand shrinks, China keeps cranking out metal, thanks to state subsidies and economic stimulus efforts.
Prices have hit rock bottom, yet production refuses to slow—because the world is still buying.
Why won't China hit the brakes?
The "P" word: According to Palmer, it's got much to do with politics.
The steel industry is deeply intertwined with the government, both as a powerful influence and a massive employer.
Entire towns depend on steel factories, making job cuts a political minefield.
Meanwhile, China's leaders are reluctant to shrink an industry they see as a pillar of national strength and self-sufficiency.
The country's obsession with steel isn't just economic—it's a legacy of its communist roots when heavy industry symbolized power and self-reliance.
US tariffs won't stop China: Under Trump, the US has finally thrown down the gauntlet with a new 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports.
But here's the catch—China already exports little directly to the US due to previous tariffs imposed by both Trump and Biden.
Instead, its cheap, overproduced metals flood global markets, slipping into the US through backdoor routes like Vietnam, while Canada and Mexico use Chinese steel at home and send their own metals stateside.
So, even with tougher US tariffs, China's grip on global metals isn't budging.
Industrial policy at a premium: Maybe the better question isn't whether Trump's tariffs will dent China's dominance - they won't— but how far China will go to keep its steel empire?
Brian Spegele, Jason Douglas, and Yoko Kubota at the Wall Street Journal carried that thematic football down the field with a look at China's extraordinary gamble on self-reliance.
In "China's Xi Is Building Economic Fortress Against US Pressure," they noted that under President Xi Jinping's leadership, China spends $250 billion annually on industrial policy, often backing failed ventures and wasteful manufacturing.
Experts argue China should prioritize domestic consumption instead of funneling more money into manufacturing.
Trade wars and global tensions are also adverse effects of China's flood of cheap steel and other exports.
Although China has invested billions in soft power initiatives to influence others, its coercive trade practices are quickly losing the hearts and minds of the world.
Taken from the top: But the advice Spegele, Douglas, and Kubota say market economists give - which is to "rev up its economy by easing controls on its private sector" - just isn't palatable to China's totalitarian dictatorship.
Over the past decade, Xi Jinping has significantly restructured China's decision-making processes, re-centralizing authority within the Party and enhancing his personal control across all policy areas, including economic decision-making.
Under Xi Thought, Chinese economists must adhere to the mantra that the Chinese Communist Party is uniquely capable of guiding China's decision-making, not an independent, Western-leaning analyst.
And so, China has doubled down on steel production as a strategic response to domestic and external pressures.
The policy comes from the top, making it both exceptional and indisputable.
Law and International Xi
CHINA CLASHES WITH AI "GODFATHER" AT PARIS SUMMIT: Tensions flared at the Paris AI Summit when Fu Ying, a former Chinese ambassador, challenged AI pioneer Yoshua Bengio over his recent AI safety report and the naming of his AI Safety Institute.
Now an academic at Tsinghua University, Fu emphasized China's preference for a cooperative governance model embodied in its AI Development and Safety Network.
The summit, attended by tech giants like OpenAI's Sam Altman and Google's Sundar Pichai, highlighted the growing US-China AI rivalry.
Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing promoted China's Global Initiative for AI Governance, introduced by President Xi Jinping in 2023.
The initiative frames AI development as a tool to "enhance humanity's well-being," but China's domestic AI applications—particularly in surveillance and social control—have drawn international condemnation.
China's AI Ambitions: While Beijing advocates "collaboration over confrontation," its AI use in Xinjiang's surveillance state and disinformation campaigns suggest China won't hesitate to use AI in unethical ways.
China overtly challenges US-led AI governance, criticizing Western semiconductor restrictions and positioning itself as an alternative tech partner for the Global South.
Beyond rhetoric, however, China is expanding its presence in AI regulatory bodies like the International Organization for Standardization (ISO).
Despite being excluded from Western-led AI forums, China is also building alliances with global tech firms, shaping governance indirectly.
Open AI: A Risk or a Necessity? In Paris, Fu touted China's rapid AI advancements since 2017 and advocated open-source AI for transparency and security.
While warning of potential misuse, Bengio acknowledged that China's open models, like DeepSeek, could offer stronger oversight than closed systems like ChatGPT.
Meanwhile, in an interview with the Financial Times, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt warned that Western nations risk falling behind China in AI development unless they prioritize open-source AI models.
Schmidt stressed that while major US companies—like Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic—are investing in closed-source AI, China is advancing rapidly with open-source innovations like DeepSeek's R1.
He emphasized that China could dominate open-source AI, leaving the West stuck with costly, proprietary models that limit access for researchers and universities.
Predictions: Schmidt believes the future of AI will require a hybrid approach that combines both open- and closed-source models.
Schmidt announced a $10 million investment in AI safety research through his non-profit, Schmidt Sciences. The initiative includes 27 projects tackling AI risks, with participation from Turing Award winner Yoshua Bengio and OpenAI board member Zico Kolter.
Despite geopolitical tensions, Schmidt called for US-China collaboration on AI safety, likening it to military information-sharing on rocket testing.
He argued that sharing safety research would benefit both nations as they navigate the challenges of powerful AI models.
Geopolitics
TRUMP PROPOSES DEAL-MAKING WITH PUTIN AND XI: US President Donald Trump has unveiled a radical shift in American foreign policy, proposing a three-way summit with Russia's Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping to reshape the world order.
His latest announcement follows his unexpected call with Putin, during which he claimed they had agreed to begin Ukraine peace talks—a move that has left Kyiv and European capitals in shock.
A push to reinstate Russia in the G7: According to the AFP, Trump has also called for Russia's return to the G7, arguing that its 2014 expulsion—following Moscow's annexation of Crimea—was a mistake. Speaking from the Oval Office, he hinted at a potential summit with both Putin and Xi, stating:
"When we straighten it all out, then I want one of the first meetings I have to be with President Xi of China, President Putin of Russia. And I want to say, let's cut our military budget in half."
Ukraine and European allies on edge: Despite Trump's optimism about Putin's willingness for peace, European allies and Ukraine remain skeptical.
President Zelensky has warned against trusting the Kremlin, and European leaders fear being sidelined in negotiations that could determine Ukraine's fate.
A break from tradition: Trump's overtures to Moscow and Beijing signal a dramatic departure from US foreign policy, which has treated both nations as adversaries.
His stance on Ukraine has often mirrored Moscow's, particularly his assertion that NATO expansion provoked Russia's 2022 invasion.
With rumored peace talks in Saudi Arabia, Trump's direct diplomacy with Putin and Xi could fundamentally reshape global power relations.
Will China play along?: According to Simone McCarthy at CNN, Trump's proposal to leverage China to pressure Putin into negotiations would mark a major shift in Beijing's role in the war.
So far, China has positioned itself as a leader of a new global order, challenging US influence by strengthening alliances with non-Western nations like Brazil.
Analysts suggest that Beijing has little incentive to fully cooperate with Washington but might explore potential advantages in deal-making with Trump.
Unlike past US presidents, Trump has expressed admiration for both Putin and Xi, making him a potentially more appealing partner for Beijing.
His call for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations aligns with China's official stance, though Western allies criticize it as favoring Russia.
A deal that freezes the conflict?: Any agreement between China, Russia, and the US will be challenging to negotiate, but if successful, it could redefine the world order.
In an interview with CNN's McCarthy, Robert Ward of the International Institute for Strategic Studies warned that any deal allowing Russia to retain occupied Ukrainian territory would turn the war into a "frozen conflict" rather than deliver an actual resolution.
"You can see how each could take something from it—Putin can save face, Xi and Trump can claim to be peacemakers," Ward said.
But any deal that allows Russia to retain control over the areas of Ukraine it currently occupies would not end the conflict.
It would just be "a lull," he said.
Best Reads
Chinese Companies' New Tactic to Stop Damaging Research: Legal Threats (David McCabe and Tripp Mickle, New York Times): Chinese companies increasingly use defamation lawsuits and legal threats to silence American think tanks and university researchers that expose ethical problems and national security risks.
Why economists got free trade with China so wrong: Planet Money (Greg Rosalsky, NPR): Rosalsky reveals how China Shock research led to a major shift in economic policy toward greater government intervention, tariffs, and targeted industrial policies.
China, Taiwan, and the PLA's 2027 milestones (Jun Culver, Lowy Institute): Western analysts have identified new mobile bridge vessel designs that, if mass-produced, could significantly enhance China's ability to deploy heavy forces and supplies across Taiwan's coast, filling a critical gap in PLA invasion preparations.
Middle Kingdom Surreal
FORMER XINHUA EXEC IMPRISONED FOR QUESTIONING LI KEQIANG'S DEATH: According to Human Rights in China, Gu Wanming, former Xinhua News Agency Guangdong executive, has been sentenced to one year in prison for questioning the cause of former Premier Li Keqiang's sudden death in October 2023.
That same month, HRIC says, Gu published an open letter to the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee and the State Council, which took issue with the "circumstances surrounding the sudden death of former Premier Li Keqiang" and called for "a full investigation."
His challenge to the CCP's tightly controlled narrative led to his imprisonment for a year and the revocation of his pension.
Xi's main rival: Li, once seen as Xi Jinping's main political rival, was sidelined during Xi's consolidation of power.
His untimely death at 68, allegedly from a heart attack while swimming, fueled widespread public suspicion—especially amid Xi's anti-corruption purges targeting top officials.
Gu's demand for transparency, including an autopsy and state funeral, was met with harsh repression, highlighting the CCP's zero tolerance for dissent.
His fate underscores Xi's ruthless control, where even party insiders are not immune to political purges.
****
Enjoy your weekend.
