These 5 China-linked geopolitical developments that took place last week are NO JOKE. -- China Boss update 4.01.22
Update
What happened: EU-China summit
Euractive has reported that "EU leaders will press their Chinese counterparts on Beijing’s position and potential role amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine” during their virtual summit today (Friday, April 1). Today’s meeting is the first EU-China summit since 2020 when relations began to sour after an “exchange of tit-for-tat sanctions over the plight of China’s Uyghur minority” and “Beijing’s trade coercion of EU-member Lithuania over Taiwan,” news staff noted.
Why it matters: The EU sanctions “punchline”
“It will be the million-dollar question in the room.”
— Senior EU official told reporters when asked about a potential EU reaction if China were to help Moscow circumvent sanctions
What happened: China accused of “risking collision” in South China Sea
The AFP reported that “the Philippine Coast Guard has accused its Chinese counterpart of steering one of its ships within metres of a Filipino patrol vessel in the disputed South China Sea, breaking international rules and risking a collision.”
Why it matters: Is the U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty making a “come back”?
The U.S. and the Philippines have a mutual defense treaty that has lost its “deterrence power” over the years due to Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s “political distancing” from the United States and “the dismal state of the Philippine military’s external defense forces,” Foreign Policy Research Institute analyst Felix K. Chang says. But that state of affairs has begun to change, and China’s bullying in the South China Sea may carry more serious ramifications if it spurs the U.S. to throw greater weight behind Philippine security.
Philippine officials have been pressing for a review of the 70-year-old treaty, and, in particular, more clarity on U.S. military assistance - which would mean an end for the U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity” - when its national security is threatened. Philippine National Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, told a Center for Strategic and International Studies forum in 2021, reported here by the U.S. Naval Institute, “that he has ‘long fought’ for a review of the treaty, noting that after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the U.S. and the Philippines’ own struggle with insurgents on Mindanao there was a strong security emphasis placed on counterterrorism,” and that “[w]hat is needed now is a look at the new realities of China’s territorial encroachment and its use of ‘gray zone’ activities to disrupt Manila’s economy, politics and security.”
What happened: US, Australia “boost” defense cooperation to counter China
The Financial Times last week reported that three top U.S. military personnel told the press ahead of meetings with Australian officials at Pine Gap, a joint, top-secret intelligence facility in Australia, that "US and Australia are boosting security co-operation in space and the cyber domain as the Indo-Pacific allies strengthen efforts to counter China, which is investing heavily in space and weapons such as hypersonic missiles."
Why it matters: Worries over PLA navy operating from Solomon Islands
The strengthening of the U.S.-Australia military relationship comes off the heels of the AUKUS pact enabling Australia to obtain nuclear-powered submarines and a new deal between China and the Solomon Islands for Chinese military “assistance” in Australia’s backyard. Analysts say China sees the strengthening of U.S.-Australia military ties as enhancing US power in its sphere of influence.
What happened: China’s DJI accused of “leaking data on Ukrainian military positions to Russia”
Reuters reports that “Chinese drone maker DJI has dismissed as ‘utterly false’ accusations that it is leaking data on Ukrainian military positions to Russia, after a German retailer cited such information as a reason for taking its products off shelves.” The Ukrainian minister of digital transformation, told Reuters that “he had asked the firm's founder, Frank Wang, in a letter to cut ties with Russia, accusing its troops of using DJI products for the navigation of missiles that kill Ukrainian civilians.” But a tweet posted in response to the allegations by a company spokesperson said “[DJI’s] products, designed for civilian use, were inappropriate for military missions.”
Why it matters: Chinese tech firms unlikely to leave Russia, analysts say
Chinese firms have continued to operate in Russia despite the risk of secondary sanctions and reputational damage.
Abishur Prakash, co-founder of the Center for Innovating the Future, an advisory firm, told CNBC:
For Chinese firms, the shadow of the China-Russia relationship looms large. These companies do not want to anger Beijing by taking a political stance (i.e. exiting Russia). Unless the Chinese government changes its foreign policy suddenly, Chinese firms are unlikely to ‘act geopolitically.’ Whatever tone Beijing sets, is the tone these companies will adhere to. And, right now, the tone is tacit support for Russia.
What happened: Taiwan says it’s taking notes from President Zelensky
Senior Taiwanese officials told the Financial Times that "Taiwan needs its president to emulate" Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's "role in leading " resistance to potential military aggression from China. “A second official said Taiwan’s presidential administration and the military were reviewing defense plans to incorporate that strategy,” FT said.
Why it matters: Improvements to Taiwan’s defense capabilities sorely needed but Beijing watching
Popular concern over the war in Ukraine has made it easier "to push through unpopular measures to strengthen the country's defenses," FT noted - something that U.S. officials have lamented for years is necessary for Taiwan to defend against an attack from the Mainland. But Beijing is likely to become anxious over any changes it thinks might strengthen Taiwan's defense capabilities - even though no one, except President Xi Jinping, perhaps, can say how that will affect China’s “reunification” timetable.
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Enjoy your weekend.