US pivots to consider China as peacemaker in Ukraine -- China Boss update 5.12.23

Update

Photo by Curioso Photography on Unsplash

What happened.

A change in US thinking about China's role as peacemaker in the Ukraine war has occurred in the past few weeks, according to the Wall Street Journal. Signs of a new approach are emerging through diplomatic messaging and announcements of high-level visits by Chinese and Ukrainian officials in Europe, according to news staff.

WSJ:

The approach is based on the belief that neither side has the ability to continue fighting indefinitely, and that Beijing’s willingness to play a role in international peace talks should be tested, the officials said. Still, they remain uncertain about Russia’s willingness to negotiate a cease-fire under Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Why it matters.

China’s neutrality at question

Only a few months ago, US officials published intelligence that Beijing was considering providing material and lethal support for Russia's war in Ukraine and summarily dismissed China's 12-point peace proposal.

In March, General Secretary Xi Jinping presented the most impressive case yet of an deepening alliance with Putin when he traveled to Moscow to meet the Russian leader and strike “fourteen bilateral investment deals in trade, tech, energy, and media communications.”

But on April 26th, Xi suddenly called Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the first time, “more than 400 days” into the war, telling the battle-weary leader that “Beijing would not add ‘fuel to the fire’” and that now was the time to “resolve the crisis politically.”

China has also announced it will soon send a peace envoy to Kyiv and other nations "in a bid to bring a cease-fire and diplomatic resolution to the war.”

Jake Sullivan’s Franco-German two-step