EU-China trade deal on "life support" after sanctions
A flurry of analysis and angry statements hit the news this week as European officials came to grips with Beijing’s angry response to its human rights sanctions.
Quote of the week comes from Stuart Lau’s recent article in Politico: “China throws EU trade deal to the wolf warriors". Not from the title, though it’s good too. But this one:
What a difference three months makes.
Andreea Brînză, Vice President of the Romanian Institute for the Study of the Asia-Pacific (RISAP), said that China’s sanctioning of 10 EU politicians, as well as prominent European academics and analysts in retaliation for EU sanctions on four Xinjiang officials are “the latest proof that Beijing doesn’t understand democracies.”
Brînză:
At the end of 2020, China and the EU finalized negotiations for the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). This agreement was criticized by numerous observers even while supported by the EU, government leaders, and the business community.
…The fact that China agreed to a number of concessions to wrap up negotiations before the inauguration of the Biden administration shows that it had an interest in the CAI coming to life and strengthening EU-China relations. But in order for that to happen, the agreement still needs approval from the European Parliament and the Council of the EU.
After China’s recent sanctions, the odds that the CAI will pass through the European Parliament decreased dramatically. China seems to have strategically (and shortsightedly) chosen five MEPs that come from all the four main political groups in the European Parliament – the European People’s Party, Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, Renew Europe, Greens-European Free Alliance – whose support is vital if the agreement is to be approved. But, obviously, MEPs will be wary to approve an agreement with a country that just sanctioned their colleagues and friends, not to mention that the five MEPs will probably lobby even harder against the CAI.
Lau put it more bluntly:
China's double-barreled sanctions attack on the EU on Monday means the landmark Beijing-Brussels trade deal is now on life support.
Emphasis added.
China’s livid response to EU sanctions crossed the line between “making a point” and Yosemite Sam ridiculous. Even the renowned Berlin-based thinktank Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) was not spared the wrath of Beijing’s outrage.
Here’s its statement:
So what happens next?
At least one European MEP told Politico that “China's actions were a deal breaker.” Marie Pierre Vedrenne of the Renew Europe group said:
It seems unthinkable that our Parliament would even entertain the idea of ratifying an agreement while its members and one of its committees are under sanctions.
Lau reported the cancellation of the European Parliament’s China investment agreement “monitoring group” meeting on Tuesday which was described as “inopportune” in light of the sanctions.
He also said that “France and the Netherlands . . . were taking up the matter with their Chinese ambassadors” and included a tweet from Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte which said: “China's move is a completely unjustified response to the measures taken under the EU human rights sanctions regime…[and the matter would] be taken up further in a European context.” Finally, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas has “rais[ed] the prospect of potential further sanctions against China for its human rights abuses.”
Guy Verhofstadt MEP, the chair of the conference on the future of Europe, told CNN "that China just killed the EU-China Investment Agreement by sanctioning the people criticising the slave labour/genocide in Xinjang.” Emphasis added.
But I found the conclusion of James Griffiths’ piece for CNN, “Could China’s aggressive sanctions counter punch risk alienating the European Union?” more interesting:
. . . while all eyes will now be on the agreement, there are also other ways lawmakers on the continent could respond that would anger China.
Reacting to the news he would not be allowed to visit China, Macao or Hong Kong, sanctioned MEP Reinhard Bütikofer tweeted "But then there is Taiwan. :-)"
Nevertheless, the primary beneficiary of President Xi’s overplayed hand may turn out to be the United States. The timing couldn’t have been better: Secretary of State Antony Blinken flew into Brussels on Monday to mend and deepen ties with the EU and NATO.
And so, be advised, geopolitics, where China is concerned, is likely to remain volatile for the foreseeable future.
Yeah - what a difference three months makes. Heck, I have to stop myself from checking the news every three minutes.
Enjoy your weekend.