Xi returns to the world stage to bide time with Biden, split Europe and lord over Justin Trudeau. -- China Boss update 11.18.22
Update
What happened.
“For the first time in three years, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is about to come face to face with some of his most powerful international critics,” Wall Street Journal’s James T. Areddy wrote last week, referencing the international talks expected on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali. “[A]s he meets President Biden and other leaders in Southeast Asia, the question is how much he might attempt to calm international fears that his autocratic methods have become a source of global instability,” Areddy said. Emphasis added.
Areddy, WSJ:
While Mr. Xi can take comfort in having transformed China into a fearsome military and diplomatic power, on top of its economic might, the global mood shifted while he was avoiding face-to-face contact with international dignitaries. Distaste across the West—not just in Washington—for his autocratic style is likely to further isolate and weaken the Chinese economy and test the fortitude of his bid to reshape the world.
Why it matters.
Biding time with Biden
As some western analysts spun the Biden-Xi meeting as a detente-lite in US-China relations, James Palmer, deputy editor at Foreign Policy, said there were no indications of a “reconciliation” on the Chinese side.
. . . I wouldn’t put too much weight on such a short meeting. Pro-engagement analysts praised the tone of the meeting, but Chinese official language and state media show no sign of reconciliation toward the United States, instead continuing to platform conspiracy theories and anti-NATO rhetoric. China’s “wolf warrior” diplomats who have done such damage to the U.S.-China relationship remain in place; if that changes after the meeting, it could make a real difference.
Taiwan remains the biggest single challenge to the U.S.-China relationship, as shown by China’s reaction to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei this year. Xi’s language during the meeting with Biden was as unwavering as ever, describing peace in the Taiwan Strait and putative Taiwanese independence “as irreconcilable as water and fire.”
Ever the cynic, China Boss thinks some of that optimism might be influenced by hopes of a China stock rally rather than a burning desire for peace. “The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism . . .” Well, you get what she means.
But that leaves us with the terrible prospect that - while neither China nor the U.S. want tensions over Taiwan to escalate into war - the clashing interests that keep them hurtling toward that fate might be too existential and immutable to be resolved even by their leaders. Another obstacle to an actual detente could be personality, although one silly rabbit seems to think that could not possibly explain the “dynamics that have led to the US and China each viewing the other as their prime national security threat.” Here’s what Katsuji Nakazawa in his latest Nikkei Asia article, Xi Jinping's path to greater power goes through Taiwan, had to say about it.
Katsuji Nakazawa, Nikkei Asia:
At the end of October, many foreign companies that operate in Taiwan began preparing evacuation plans in case a war broke out. The debate at the recently-closed Chinese Communist Party national congress had a large part to do with this trend.
President Xi Jinping won a third term as top leader, but the specter of war still lingers.
That is because Xi did not clinch his ultimate goal of staying leader for life -- despite stacking the top leadership with his allies and acquiring ultimate power.
Foreign companies must now worry if an armed unification of Taiwan will become an option to realize that final goal.
Taiwan unification would undoubtedly put Xi on par with Mao Zedong in terms of achievements and allow him to gain a fourth term at the party's next national congress, in 2027. Furthermore, his dream of reviving the post of party chairman -- which Mao held until his death -- might finally come true through a further drastic revision of the party's constitution in five years' time.
Splitting and omitting Europe
Xi’s “diplomacy” with Europe at last week’s G20 summit was positively wicked. Politico.eu’s Stuart Lau described the scene in a way that could also be used to illustrate how a scavenger moves on a dead goat, picking it away, piece by piece.
Lau, Politico.eu:
China conspicuously revived its long-established tactic of courting specific EU countries and their national interests, something it has often used to destabilize Brussels. (When Brussels threatened an all-out trade war in 2013 over China undercutting the EU market in solar panels and telecoms equipment, China expertly shattered EU unity by threatening retaliatory action against French and Spanish wine, playing Paris and Madrid against EU trade officials.)
Once again in Bali, China took the canny nation-to-nation approach, meeting Macron, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Italy's Giorgia Meloni and the Netherlands' Mark Rutte, while avoiding European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel. A meeting with Michel, at least, had been widely expected in diplomatic circles.
Browbeating Canada
But what happened to Europe in Bali was like being handled with kid-gloves compared to Xi’s bulldozing of Canada.
CNN:
On the sidelines of the G20 summit in Indonesia, Xi chatted with Trudeau in Mandarin with a smile. But the English translation of what he said was a little less friendly.
“Everything we’ve discussed has been leaked to the papers and that is not appropriate,” Xi’s translator said.
Trudeau nods and Xi spoke again. “And that was not how the conversation was conducted,” the translator said.
“If there was sincerity on your part, than we shall conduct our discussion with an attitude of mutual respect, otherwise there might be unpredictable consequences,” Xi tells the Canadian leader in Mandarin.
Xi’s translator attempts to translate what was said, only getting to “If there was sincerity on your part,” before being cut off by Trudeau.
“In Canada we believe in a free and open and frank dialogue,” Trudeau said, adding “we will continue to work constructively together, but there will be things that we will disagree on.”
“Let’s create the conditions first,” the translator said on behalf of Xi in the video. The Chinese leader then shakes Trudeau’s hand and walked away with his entourage.
If you (still) have doubts about Xi’s approach to “calming international fears” over “global instability” - watch the video.
Watch Xi be an ass on YouTube.
****
Have a great weekend.